Morning View
In the US, Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter of 2025 contracted by -0.3% annualised.
International
In the US, Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell at a -0.3% annualised pace versus -0.2% expected, in contrast to Q4 2024 (+2.4%), and representing the first contraction since Q1 2022. Meanwhile, the March personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index -the Federal Reserve's benchmark for monetary policy decisions- was unchanged on a monthly basis and posted +2.3% y-o-y, slightly higher than the +2.2% expected; while the measure excluding food and fuels was also unchanged on a monthly basis and rose +2.6% y-o-y, in line with expectations.
US Treasury yields compressed across most maturities during yesterday's trading. The 1-year bond closed at 3.86% versus 3.89% previously, the 3-year bond at 3.59% versus 3.64% on Monday, and the 10-year bond at 4.15% versus 4.17% previously. It is worth noting that the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) national employment report for April revealed that new jobs were 62k, the lowest since the end of 2020 and below the 115k estimate.
The major US equity indices ended higher in most cases yesterday. The S&P 500 was up +0.2% and the Dow Jones +0.3%, while the Nasdaq diverged, dropping -0.1%. Thus, for the year, the indices accumulated declines of -5.3%, -4.4% and -9.7%, respectively.
On the Q1 earnings season, Microsoft reported earnings per share (EPS) of USD 3.46 and revenue of USD 70.1 billion, above expectations of USD 3.23 and USD 68.53 billion respectively, while Meta Platforms also beat estimates, reporting EPS of USD 6.43 and revenue of USD 42.31 billion, against expectations of USD 5.24 and USD 41.48 billion each. Results from Amazon, Apple and McDonald's, among the majors, will be released today.
In the Eurozone, Q1 GDP came in above expectations, rising +1.2% y-o-y and +0.4% q-o-q versus expectations of +1.1% and +0.2% respectively. In this environment, the EuroStoxx 50 index ended yesterday's trading day unchanged.
Fuente: PUENTE Hnos, Bloomberg
US Treasury yields fall ahead of strong activity, employment and inflation data
International
US Treasury yields compressed across the curve yesterday. The 1-year bond closed at 3.89% versus 3.92% previously, the 3-year at 3.64% versus 3.67% on Monday, and the 10-year at 4.17% versus 4.20% previously. During the day, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) national employment report for April will be released, with 115,000 new jobs expected to be created.
At the same time, the US will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index -the Federal Reserve's benchmark for monetary policy decisions- for March, estimating year-on-year increases of +2.2% and +2.6% in the measure that excludes food and fuels, and the 1st estimate of the 1st quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), for which an annualised +0.2% is expected.
The major US equity indices closed higher yesterday. While the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones indexes each gained +0.7%, the Nasdaq index gained +0.5%. Thus, for the year, the indices accumulated declines of -5.4%, -4.7% and -9.6%, respectively. Notably, the JOLTs job openings survey -which measures open job vacancies- for March showed total job openings of 7.192 million, lower than the estimate of 7.49 million and the revised February figure (7.48 million).
Looking at the Q1 earnings season, Coca-Cola reported earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.73, higher than expected USD 0.72, and revenues of USD 11.1 billion, lower than expected USD 11.2 billion. Meanwhile, Novartis and VISA reported higher than expected EPS and revenues, while Pfizer only EPS forecast but not revenues. The focus of the day will be on results from Microsoft and Meta Platforms, among the most important companies.
Fuente: PUENTE Hnos, Bloomberg
